The South African Reserve Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it announces its next monetary policy decision on 28 May.
According to REMAX Southern Africa, the central bank is likely to maintain its cautious approach as inflation risks intensify and global uncertainty continues to cloud the economic outlook.
The property group said current economic indicators suggest the Monetary Policy Committee will opt to keep the repo rate on hold while assessing the durability of inflationary pressures and the impact of geopolitical tensions.
SARB Likely To Keep Moderately Restrictive Policy Stance
Adrian Goslett, CEO and regional director of REMAX Southern Africa, said the central bank is unlikely to make any immediate changes to monetary policy.
“Although inflation has remained relatively stable in recent months, the underlying risks have shifted notably this year, and we therefore do not expect the SARB to rush into any policy changes at present,” explains Goslett.
He said the April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee Review indicated that global disinflation had been disrupted by supply-side shocks, particularly geopolitical tensions that have driven up oil and commodity prices.
As a result, inflation is expected to rise over the course of the year, although it should remain within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 3% to 6%.
“It’s evident that the SARB is adopting a caution over action approach, given the current inflation risks and global markets volatility that have distorted the upside movement we were seeing. While disappointing, it is understandable that policymakers will prefer to pause instead of prematurely cutting rates further,” says Goslett.
Property Market To Benefit From Interest Rate Stability
REMAX Southern Africa said a prolonged pause in interest rates could provide greater certainty for the residential property market, even if homeowners and prospective buyers will have to wait longer for possible relief.
While lower borrowing costs would improve affordability, a stable interest rate environment enables both buyers and sellers to make more informed financial decisions and plan with greater confidence.
Rising US Inflation And Oil Prices Add To Global Uncertainty
Bianca Botes, managing director at Citadel Global, said on Wednesday morning that faster-than-expected inflation in the United States has revived the possibility of further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
According to Botes, overnight swaps are pricing in a 40% chance of a Fed rate hike later this year. “Brent crude climbed yesterday, before blowing off some steam this morning, to trade at $106/barrel.
“Ongoing woes in the Strait of Hormuz and a diminishing likelihood of a swift resolution to the US-Iran war is keeping oil prices elevated. Gold is trading at $4,703/ounce, regaining some lost ground after slipping on yesterday’s inflation reading.”
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Reezwana Sumad, a research analyst at Nedbank CIB, said gold declined for a second consecutive day as stronger US inflation data increased the likelihood of higher US interest rates.
“Oil slipped after rising almost 8% over the past three sessions, as a resolution to the Middle East conflict remains elusive, with Iranian exports showing further strain from a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.”
