OpenAI Revenue Estimate Falls Short Of Earlier Reports, Raising Questions Over Valuation

OpenAI’s annualised revenue was close to $50 billion at the end of September, according to documents shared with its financial backers and cited by the Financial Times, a figure substantially below earlier media reports that placed the measure at about $70 billion.

The discrepancy has drawn attention to how the artificial intelligence company reports its financial performance as it pursues further private investment and prepares for a potential public listing.

Earlier reports had estimated OpenAI’s annualised revenue at approximately $68 billion to $70 billion. However, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC that the higher figure included gross revenue from OpenAI’s partnerships with companies such as chipmaker Nvidia.

According to that account, the calculation was intended to make comparisons between OpenAI and its main competitor, Anthropic, easier for investors.

OpenAI did not immediately respond to Agence France-Presse’s request for comment, according to the supplied report.

Different Revenue Calculations Fuel Investor Scrutiny

Annualised revenue is commonly used by technology start-ups to illustrate their growth trajectory. The measure typically takes revenue generated over a shorter period, such as a month, and projects it across a full year.

However, it is not the same as actual annual revenue. The calculation assumes that the observed level of sales can be sustained, meaning the result can change substantially as business conditions evolve.

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The difference between the reported $50 billion figure and earlier estimates therefore raises questions about the revenue measure being used, particularly whether partnership-related amounts are included and how those figures compare with revenue reported by competing AI companies.

Investors monitor annualised revenue at OpenAI and Anthropic as an indicator of demand for artificial intelligence services. These figures also inform assessments of the substantial investment being directed towards data centres and other infrastructure required to develop and operate AI systems.

The reported discrepancy does not, by itself, establish that OpenAI’s underlying business is weakening. The figures cited in the reports appear to use different calculations, and further clarification would be needed to establish a directly comparable revenue measure.

AI-Linked Shares Fall Following Report

The Financial Times report coincided with declines in several companies associated with the artificial intelligence sector.

Nvidia shares fell 2.9%, while Oracle declined by nearly 6%. SpaceX was also reported to be down 4%.

The reported market movements came amid investor scrutiny of the financial performance and valuations of companies connected to the AI industry.

Large investments in computing infrastructure have become an important part of the sector’s expansion. Revenue estimates help investors assess whether demand for AI products and services can support the scale of that spending.

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However, the available information does not establish that the report alone caused the share-price declines or quantify its contribution to broader market movements.

Fundraising And Potential Public Listing In Focus

The revenue figures have emerged as OpenAI negotiates another private fundraising round that could value the company at approximately $1.4 trillion, according to the Financial Times.

The company is also preparing for a potential initial public offering (IPO). OpenAI reportedly submitted confidential paperwork for an IPO in June, although its previously anticipated public listing this autumn has since been delayed.

Anthropic, its principal competitor, is expected to pursue a public listing next month, according to the supplied report.

The competing companies’ financial disclosures and fundraising efforts are being closely watched as investors seek to assess the commercial demand underpinning the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence.

For OpenAI, clarifying the basis of its revenue figures could help investors distinguish between reported sales, partnership-related revenue and projections based on recent performance.

The company’s actual financial position cannot be determined from annualised revenue estimates alone. A clearer comparison would require consistent definitions of revenue and additional information about the companies’ financial performance.